We calibrated the model for deaths for the period, March 21 to April 30 for the United States as a whole, and the U.S. States of New York, California and West Virginia. We used the daily data from the COVID-19 Tracking Project, which is a volunteer organization launched from The Atlantic. Every day, data is collected on testing and patient outcomes from all the 50 states, 5 territories, and the District of Columbia. This dataset is widely used by policy makers and scholars. We examined the fit of the model (F-value and its significance, R-Square value) and the statistical significance of the variables (t-values) for each one of the four estimates. We also examined the forecast st rd of deaths for a 3-days period, May 1 to 3 for each one of the four estimates – US, and States of New York, California and West Virginia. Read more
